Q: How Many Elves Lived in Middle-earth?
ANSWER: Many readers have asked how many Elves might have been alive at different times in Middle-earth. J.R.R. Tolkien seems to have never really calculated how many generations of Elves lived in Middle-earth, but he certainly gave some thought to how many Elves might have awakened at the beginning of their history. Some people (including me) have tried to estimate how many Elves could have been born based on population growth models. However, these estimates run into a number of complications.
First of all, the history of the Elves begins during the Years of the Trees. Readers cannot agree on just how to translate those years into “years of the Sun”. Some people argue in favor of a ratio of 9.58 years of the Sun to 1 year of the (Two) Trees (of Valinor). Some people argue in favor of 144 years of the Sun to 1 year of the Trees. Some people argue in favor of 100 years.
With no consensus on how much time the Elves had in Middle-earth (or Aman) in terms of Years of the Sun, we cannot really agree on how to estimate numbers of generations. If we cannot agree on how many generations of Elves might have been born, our estimates of Elven populations will be radically different.
Secondly, although Tolkien wrote that an Elf might grow to maturity in as few as 50 years of the Sun, some Elves might not become fully mature for 100 years of the Sun. Additionally, he wrote that the Eldar preferred to raise only one child at a time — but he did not say whether non-Eldarin Elves followed similar patterns. So how long is an Elven generation? How many years should a generation be staggered?
Finally, although Tolkien mentioned rates of birth for the Noldor early in their history, he implied that their rates of birth changed over time — and said nothing about the rates of birth for other Elven groups.
So even assuming there were no losses to death or unrequited love, we cannot all agree on how many Elves probably lived at any given time.
Against the estimates of births we have no information about rates of death at different times. We do know that the majority of the rebellious Noldor were eventually slain in the wars with Morgoth. The losses in the wars would have halted the growth of the Noldorin population.
These complications have not fully discouraged people from making the effort. If you try to do the math yourself you may find that the numbers run anywhere from a few thousand Elves per kindred to 10s of thousands to millions. It’s when estimates run into the millions that people begin to ask if the estimates are not getting out of hand.
Then again, what is too large an estimate for numbers of Elves? According to various sources, the population of modern humans may have been reduced to about 10,000 individuals around 70,000 years ago (after the so-called Toba Event, when a super-volcano’s eruption led to the death of most modern humans).
Some estimates suggest that from about 12,000 years ago to 7,000 years ago the human population may have been in the range of 1,000,000 to 5,000,000 people.
By the time that “civilization was dawning” around 6,000 years ago there may have been as many as 7,000,000 people. Human populations may have doubled over the next 1,000 years to about 14,000,000.
By about 3,000 years ago (1,000 BCE) there may have been 50,000,000 people alive. By this time major civilizations had arisen in southeastern Europe, Central America, eastern Asia, and the Middle East. However, none of the great empires of history had yet arisen.
By 2,000 years ago estimates from many experts suggest there could have been as many as 250,000,000 to 300,000,000 people (or as few as 150,000,000 people).
Hence, to suggest that Middle-earth might have been populated by as many as several million Elves at one time is not entirely unreasonable. At the height of Eldarin and Numenorean civilization, just prior to the War of the Elves and Sauron, Middle-earth and Numenor could have supported populations totalling 10-20,000,000 people (Elves, Dwarves, Orcs, and Men) and still not have matched the size of world populations around 3,000 years ago.
In other words, if you want to set some upper limits on populations, there are plenty of stopping points to choose from. But there are no canonical data points. Your guess is as good as anyone else’s.
See also:
- How Many Noldor Left the Undying Lands in Fëanor’s Rebellion?
- How Many Elves Lived in Rivendell?
- Elves by the Numbers
- How Many Rangers of the North Were There?
- How Many Men Entered Beleriand?
- How Many Riders of Rohan Were There?
- How Many Soldiers Fought in the Battle of Five Armies?
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