Can We Estimate Eriador’s Historical Populations?

Q: Can We Estimate Eriador’s Historical Populations?

ANSWER: Population estimates for any period or region of Middle-earth are both popular and complete fantasy. I received this request in July 2023:

I have a question that I believe can only be answered with some degree of inference and speculation (i.e. I don’t believe there is a clear answer in Tolkien’s works): how populated was Eriador before the Great Plague (TA 1635) and the destruction of Angmar (TA 1975)? Can we (reasonably) suppose the existence of other settlements like those of Bree-land? I am not talking about fortified settlements/power centers, such as Annúminas and Fornost, but small or medium-sized towns, with their taverns, inns, shops and artisans.
I suppose Annúminas, Fornost and Tharbad demanded the employment of a large contingent of farmers and craftsmen, but was this population scattered through the territory? Wouldn’t [it] be easier to protect the tax base if they were concentrated in a few sites? In the medieval Kingdom of Hungary, for instance, craftsmen were concentrated around royal castles, princely seats and the seats of forested estates.

I remember a long time ago when someone asked this kind of question in an online discussion one of the other Tolkien pundits immediately jumped in with a comment like “this is another of those how many angels can dance on the head of a pin questions.”

Of course, half the fun of fandom is rambling on over needless questions. It’s not like one must know how many people lived in Eriador at any time in order to appreciate Tolkien’s stories. So one can always do as the High Aldwyn does and consult the bones (well, the books). And, naturally, the bones tell me [almost] nothing.

Before I begin quoting the [almost] Nothingness, let me state a few caveats.

Caveats about Estimating Middle-earth Populations

As with real history, Tolkien’s imaginary history covers a huge span of time – many thousands of years. Populations change over time for several reasons, including immigration, war, diseases, changes in food technologies and infrastructure, natural disasters, and more.

Middle-earth history mentions virtually all of these population-affecting phenomena, except for “changes in food technologies and infrastructure”. But declines in infrastructure should be inferred from each depopulating event, because logically there would be fewer people left behind to maintain or improve existing infrastructures.

Food infrastructure would include things like granaries, slaughterhouses, roads and bridges, pastures, and water distribution systems. You would need skilled labor to build, maintain, and improve all of these kinds of structures.

That said, one could always suppose that Men and Hobbits would be able to call upon the aid of Dwarves and Elves. Your imagination is the final arbiter of what you think would be likely or acceptable.

Another point to consider is what, exactly, Tolkien had in mind when he visualized Eriador at various times in its history. He used very generic terminology to describe the cultures and technologies of Middle-earth. I’ve had long discussions with people about whether “mail shirts are medieval” (they are not – they were invented centuries before the Roman Senate bestowed the title of Augustus on Octavian in 27 BCE). There’s just no way to prove that Middle-earth was anything more than a generic mush of anachronisms from throughout history.

His Hobbits had clocks and barometers, umbrellas, and fireworks. Bilbo had at least 2 cellars at Bag End, where he stored beer (and probably wine). There were also cellars in Erebor and Thranduil’s mansions. Archaeologists have found cellars in Egypt and the Middle East dating back as much as 4,000 years ago. The idea of storing food and drink underground is probably much older than that.

So the reader is left to imagine what Middle-earth is supposed to be “modeled” on. I don’t think Tolkien had any specific region or period in mind. He bound himself to include some things that seem unlikely because they originated in the story he told his children. But done is done, as they say.

Historical estimates of the Earth’s ancient population about 6,000 years ago run into the millions. Estimates from the 1800s (of which Tolkien would have heard in his early lifetime) ranged from about 100 million to 300 million people. So he might have considered those numbers as boundaries for his own fictional populations for the entire world (not just the lands of Eriador, Rhovanion, and the Vales of Anduin).

If we equate the northwestern lands of Middle-earth Tolkien used for his stories with Europe, then the estimates drop to the range of 10 million to 40 million. In the late 1800s scientists estimated that Carthage and Rome each had about 750,000 inhabitants (I don’t know if that includes surrounding townlands). To be consistent with the 10-40 million estimates, I think we’d have to assume that most of the populations would have concentrated near the cities. Hence, ancient Europe would have consisted of vast wildernesses broken up by occasional cities and towns with smaller villages and isolated homesteads radiating outward from those centers of population.

These communities would have required sources of clean water, plenty of arable land and good pasturage, and would have to be connected to other communities via roads, rivers, or the sea to support trade and communication.

So I think that regardless of which historical periods you want to use as a model for Middle-earth, it’s probably a safe assumption that at any given time there were vast empty lands in-between Eriador’s towns and cities. It simply would not have been practical (especially given threats from “evil” peoples and creatures) for many people to live scattered across the countryside.

What the Books Say about Eriador’s Populations

“Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age” in The Silmarillion has this to say about Elendil’s realm:

Elendil was cast up by the waves in the land of Lindon, and he was befriended by Gil-galad. Thence he passed up the River Lhûn, and beyond Ered Luin he established his realm, and his people dwelt in many places in Eriador about the courses of the Lhûn and the Baranduin; but his chief city was at Annúminas beside the water of Lake Nenuial. At Fornost upon the North Downs also the Númenóreans dwelt, and in Cardolan, and in the hills of Rhudaur; and towers they raised upon Emyn Beraid and upon Amon Sûl; and there remain many barrows and ruined works in those places, but the towers of Emyn Beraid still look towards the sea.

And Unfinished Tales of Númenor and Middle-earth contained this previously unpublished note:

Glanduin means “border-river.” It was the name first given (in the Second Age), since the river was the southern boundary of Eregion, beyond which pre-Númenórean and generally unfriendly peoples lived, such as the ancestors of the Dunlendings. Later it, with the Gwathló formed by its confluence with the Mitheithel, formed the southern boundary of the North Kingdom. The land beyond, between the Gwathló and the Isen (Sîr Angren) was called Enedwaith (“Middle-folk”); it belonged to neither kingdom and received no permanent settlements of men of Númenórean origin. But the great North-South Road, which was the chief route of communication between the Two Kingdoms except by sea, ran through it from Tharbad to the Fords of Isen (Ethraid Engrin). Before the decay of the North Kingdom and the disasters that befell Condor, indeed until the coming of the Great Plague in Third Age 1636, both kingdoms shared an interest in this region, and together built and maintained the Bridge of Tharbad and the long causeways that carried the road to it on either side of the Gwathló and Mitheithel across the fens in the plains of Minhiriath and Enedwaith.* A considerable garrison of soldiers, mariners and engineers had been kept there until the seventeenth century of the Third Age. But from then onwards the region fell quickly into decay; and long before the time of The Lord of the Rings had gone back into wild fenlands. When Boromir made his great journey from Gondor to Rivendell – the courage and hardihood required is not fully recognized in the narrative—the North-South Road no longer existed except for the crumbling remains of the causeways, by which a hazardous approach to Tharbad might be achieved, only to find ruins on dwindling mounds, and a dangerous ford formed by the ruins of the bridge, impassable if the river had not been there slow and shallow – but wide.

Tharbad, as we know, was abandoned in Third Age year 2912 after it was flooded, but we don’t know how large its population then was compared to earlier periods. The footnote reads:

In the early days of the kingdoms the most expeditious route from one to the other (except for great armaments) was found to be by sea to the ancient port at tile head at the estuary of the Gwathló and so to the riverport of Tharbad, and thence by the Road. The ancient sea-port and its great quays were ruinous, but with long labour a port capable of receiving seagoing vessels had been made at Tharbad, and a fort raised there on great earthworks on both sides of the river, to guard the once famed Bridge of Tharbad. The ancient port was one of the earliest ports of the Númenóreans, begun by the renowned mariner-king Tar-Aldarion, and later enlarged and fortified. It was called Lond Daer Enedh, the Great Middle Haven (as being between Lindon in the North and Pelargir on the Anduin). [Author’s note.]

And then there is this note from Appendix II to “The Battles of the Fords of Isen”

In ancient days the southern and eastern bounds of the North Kingdom had been the Greyflood; the western bounds of the South Kingdom was the Isen. To the land between (the Enedwaith or “middle region”) few Númenóreans had ever come, and none had settled there. In the days of the Kings it was part of the realm of Gondor,* but it was of little concern to them, except for the patrolling and upkeep of the great Royal Road. This went all the way from Osgiliath and Minas Tirith to Fornost in the far North, crossed the Fords of Isen and passed through Enedwaith, keeping to the higher land in the centre and north-east until it had to descend to the west lands about the lower Greyflood, which it crossed on a raised causeway leading to a great bridge at Tharbad. In those days the region was little peopled. In the marshlands of the mouths of Greyflood and Isen lived a few tribes of “Wild Men,” fishers and fowlers, but akin in race and speech to the Drúedain of the woods of Anórien.† In the foothills of the western side of the Misty Mountains lived the remnants of the people that the Rohirrim later called the Dunlendings: a sullen folk, akin to the ancient inhabitants of the While Mountain valleys whom Isildur cursed.‡ They had little love of Gondor, but though hardy and bold enough were too few and too much in awe of the might of the Kings to trouble them, or to turn their eyes away from the East, whence all their chief perils came. The Dunlendings suffered, like all the peoples of Arnor and Gondor, in the Great Plague of the years 1636-7 of the Third Age, but less than most, since they dwelt apart and had few dealings with other men. When the days of the Kings ended (1975-2050) and the waning of Gondor began, they ceased in fact to be subjects of Gondor; the Royal Road was unkept in Enedwaith, and the Bridge of Tharbad becoming ruinous was replaced only by a dangerous ford. The bounds of Gondor were the Isen, and the Gap of Calenardhon (as it was then called). The Gap was watched by the fortresses of Aglarond (the Hornburg) and Angrenost (Isengard), and the Fords of Isen, the only easy entrance to Gondor, were ever guarded against any incursion from the “Wild Lands.”

I’m not going to quote the footnotes, which elaborate on minor details.

There is one more text, published in The Nature of Middle-earth, titled “Note on the Delay of Gil-galad and the Númenóreans”. This is a short note which vaguely describes many peoples throughout Middle-earth just prior to the War of the Elves and Sauron but it includes a footnote that reads:

That is, of the numerous tribes of Men, whom the Elves called Men of Good Will, who lived in Eriador and Calenardhon and the Vales of Anduin and in the Great Wood [Michael: Greenwood the Great] and the plains between that and Mordor and the Sea of Rhûn. In Eriador there were actually some of the remnants of the Three Houses of Men who had fought with the Elves against Morgoth. Others there were of their kin, who (like the Silvan Elves) had never passed the Ered Luin, and others of remoter kin. But nearly all were descendants of ancient rebels against Morgoth. (Some evil men there were also.)

I’ve documented in past articles other references to these ancient Men of Eriador of various tribes (including Edainic peoples, farmers related to the Folk of Bór, and [First Age] Easterlings).

So now let me get to some specific questions.

Q: Can we (reasonably) suppose the existence of other settlements like those of Bree-land?

Yes. In fact, Gildor told Frodo that “others” had dwelt in the Shire before the Hobbits came. There is at least one passage that says those lands had formerly been the “town-lands” that supported Annúminas prior to its abandonment. The Bree-land itself would have been too far away to support Fornost Erain or Tharbad. So there had to be other towns and communities that could support at least those cities.

In fact, Tolkien alludes to those long-lost, forgotten communities in several places. We just don’t see their ruins in any narratives.

Q: Was this population scattered through the territory?

It would have been somewhat impractical for the majority of farm-lands to be long distances from the cities. Now, that said, historical ancient empires were indeed able to transport large quantities of food over great distances. One can suppose Arnor would have had some kind of regular overland transport (caravans, “trains” of carts and pack animals, etc.). But I believe Tolkien would imagine most of the food required by the cities and larger towns would have been provided by nearby farms and estates.

Q: Wouldn’t it be easier to protect the tax base if they were concentrated in a few sites?

Yes and no. It would really depend on how large the population of Eriador/Arnor would be. Assuming farming methods no better than those used by the Roman Empire or the last European Dark Age (Circa. 476 CE to 1000 CE), you’d have to spread the population out across multiple regions. They just wouldn’t be able to raise enough food from the land to support a huge population center.

Rome and similar ancient cities with huge populations were able to import grain and other foods by sea. Only Tharbad would have been able to do that – but from whence would they have gotten their food? We’re not talking about a region similar to the Mediterranean Sea.

As meticulous as J.R.R. Tolkien was, he probably thought about that when looking at his map. But given that such details don’t advance any of his stories he felt no need to write them out even in private notes (at least – no such notes have been discovered).

Conclusion

To answer your first 2 questions, I think the population of Arnor prior to the Great Plague was more than 1 million people (in Tolkien’s thought). And I think it would have been several million people prior to the War of the Last Alliance of Elves and Men.

But by the time Angmar overran Arthedain (by then essentially the same as Arnor in size), I think you’re probably looking at a population of hundreds of thousands.

There’s no textual basis for these numbers. They’re just my intuitive guesses at what Tolkien might have imagined.

See also

Did Tolkien Explain Why Middle-earth Seems So Empty?

When Did Eriador become Deserted?

How Well Populated Was Pre-plague Eriador?

How Many Edain Entered Beleriand?

Where Did the Second Age Númenoreans Live in Eriador?

Who Were the Drúedain, Haradrim, and Easterlings?

Where Did the People of Arnor Come from?

The World of Middle-earth: Population Estimates (SF-Worlds.com)

The World of Middle-earth: Where Did Everyone Live? (SF-Worlds.com)

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