#fantasy #tolkien #middleearth
Q: Did Tolkien Explain Why Middle-earth Seems So Empty?
ANSWER: The short answer to this question is “yes”. J.R.R. Tolkien did explain why Middle-earth seems so empty. But that begs another question: were his explanations plausible, given what we [believe we] know about human populations in real history?
I received the following question from a reader in March 2021:
One question that has always bothered me about this setting though is how stagnant the cultures seemed to be. Thousands of years, many of which include war against terrible foes, and they’re using the same military technology as was used by their ancestors? That seems…odd.
The people of ME seem less expansion orientated than most human cultures throughout history; you would expect that the Gondorians at the height of their power, with palantirs to tie their empire together, might have grown to occupy a much larger territory.
I realize it’s all fiction and the real reason is “because that’s what the author wanted” but I have always wondered if there was a canonical reason as well.
You’re asking several related questions.
How Should Cultural Progress Be Measured in Middle-earth?
I’ve discussed this question with numerous people through the years. I’m not sure we have a good barometer for “cultural stagnation”. If you’re measuring progress by military technology, you should consider just how long we’ve used certain types of weapons and armor.
We don’t have much knowledge about ancient weapons prior to around 3,000 years ago. However, mail-like (scale) armor is attested as far back as about 800 BCE. Chain mail was developed by the Celts and in use around 300 BCE. Armies around the world continued to use it up through the 1500s, so that’s about 2,000 years of mail-style armors.
Even so, other types of armor were using across those millennia, including breastplates of various design and material. We still use a type of breastplate armor today (bullet-proof vests and ceramic plate body armor).
The most recent cavalry charge in real warfare occurred in 2001, when U.S. special forces and Afghan fighters charged Taliban tanks on horseback. Sure, we now have weapons that can destroy entire cities from thousands of miles away, but there’s more to technological development than just a timeline.
Middle-earth’s history up through the early Fourth Age is a very limited point of view. It’s supposedly derived from a small number of books that J.R.R. Tolkien supposedly found and translated: The Red Book of Westmarch and Bilbo’s Translations from the Elvish.
Real History Serves As A Blueprint for Middle-earth History
One of the themes of Tolkien’s fictional history is the rise and fall of great civilizations. The first rise and fall is the civilization of the Valar and Maiar. They withdraw from what would become Middle-earth after Melkor destroys the Two Lamps that provide light to the world.
The next rise and fall occurs in Beleriand, where the Sindar, Dwarves, and Noldor gradually come together over thousands of years and build many cities and realms. They engage in commerce and war. But all of their technological accomplishments are lost in the destruction of their realms and ultimately of most of Beleriand itself.
The Eldar start over in Eriador in the Second Age (and a remnant of eastern Beleriand, Lindon). The western Dwarves of Ered Luin are essentially absorbed into the central Longbeard Dwarves of the Misty Mountains and Rhovanion. And the Edain are divided into the more advanced Númenoreans who build a great civilization far out in the sea and the more primitive western groups of Eriador, Rhovanion, and the lower Vales of Anduin.
Eventually the Eldarin realm of Eregion is destroyed, most of Eriador is destroyed in war and flame, and Númenor succumbs to the dark designs of Sauron. But after Sauron is removed from Middle-earth Gil-galad re-extends his influence to the Misty Mountains. After the Downfall of Númenor Elendil and his sons found the realms of Arnor and Gondor.
The rise and fall pattern continues into the Third Age.
In real history, we see similar rises and falls. In the Mediterranean region there was the period of “Dark Ages” that lasted from approximately 1200 BCE to 800 BCE. We’re still learning much about this period of history.
Another “dark age” ensued across Europe after the western Roman empire collapsed.
Were Middle-earth Cultures Really Stagnant?
I think it’s a mistake to judge everything by martial technology. While the Eldar were dominant in Middle-earth, their civilization and cultures were focused on meeting their own specific needs and desires. They weren’t bent on conquest of their neighbors. They defended themselves against enemies, but they didn’t always rely on armies.
We see better examples in the Wars of Beleriand of methods the Elves used for defense, such as the Girdle of Melian. The Girdle alone wasn’t sufficient to defend Doriath – Thingol had to ward his realm’s borders with armed forces. And while Melian was a Maia of considerable power, Galadriel (her student) was able to construct a similar-style defense for Lothlorien in the Third Age. Sauron was unable to penetrate Lothlorien’s magical defenses.
The Noldor of Eregion developed great things in the Second Age, culminating in the creation of the Rings of Power. We don’t know what other artifacts they devised because their realm was destroyed and Sauron seized everything he could find.
When the Númenoreans established Arnor and Gondor, they built massive fortifications and shaped mountains and hills. Even during the Third Age the realm of Gondor was capable of carving massive sculptures out of hillsides. The city of Minas Tirith though founded in the late Second Age only became a great center of wealth and power in the Third Age.
He was very subtle about it, but Tolkien described change, growth, and maturity for many of Middle-earth’s north-western cultures. The Hobbits arrived in Eriador as almost refugees. They established settlements in the Angle and Dunland but eventually left them behind. Their oldest settlements by the end of the Third Age were in the Bree-land, but the Shire had become a huge success in the 1400 years of its existence to that time. And just as the Shire was colonized by Bree-landers, the Buckland was colonized by Shire-folk. The Westmarch was established in the early Fourth Age.
In Rhovanion the Northmen established great kingdoms that rose and fell. We know about Dale, the kingdom of Vidugavia, and the Éothéod. But there were also the Beornings at the end of the Third Age. Tolkien implies they continued to thrive for many generations afterward.
Could or Should Gondor Have Grown Larger?
Both Arnor and Gondor fell prey to internal strife. In fact, their struggles and divisions remind me very much of the many internal conflicts of the Roman empire (or, going back further, ancient Macedonia, Greece, the Middle East, and Egypt). That is, both Arnor and Gondor followed a historical progression that is found in many periods of both classical and medieval history.
I think we can say that if Arnor and Gondor’s princes hadn’t begun fighting among themselves, then their energies would have been directed outward. But Tolkien didn’t see a need for further expansion. He wanted to show how Sauron’s return changed the course of history. In fact, after he took shape again, Sauron spent 2,000 years dividing and weakening his enemies. The real growth and cultural evolution occurred in lands under Sauron’s control. He seized the initiative from the Eldarin and Númenorean cultures.
And Then There’s The Matter of Population
Modern estimates about the (pre-)historical population of Earth in the past are not very reliable because we have so little evidence of who lived where. Scientists generally believe about 10,000 homo sapiens survived the Toba Event that occurred around 70,000 years ago. They also believe somewhere between 150 million and 350 million people were living on Earth about 2,000 years ago. 6,000 years ago (when Tolkien placed the end of the Third Age) scientists postulate there may have been between 7 million and 50 million people.
J.R.R. Tolkien himself computed or suggested some population numbers for Elves and Númenoreans. But these calculations were complicated and sometimes contradictory. He “argued” with himself on some of the points. And none of his estimates extended to the late Third Age.
He concluded that there were maybe 50,000-60,000 Quendi by the time the Eldar reached Beleriand. But his calculations stopped there (and he recalculated the estimates). He suggested in a single comment in an essay on Númenor that there could have been as many as 15 million people living in Númenor just before the Downfall. But how many more were living in Middle-earth?
Most of the rebellious Noldor who fled Aman were dead by the War of Wrath. Of the survivors, many returned to Aman after being forgiven by the Valar. So the Noldor of Lindon who remained with Gil-galad could not have been great in number. And even the Sindar had been greatly reduced in population. So their numbers would have increased throughout the first half of the Second Age, but did they increase again afterward?
In order for cultures to grow and advance, they need population. They need people to exchange ideas, test new experiences, and learn from their environment. Knowledge is lost when civilizations collapse, whether because of war or natural disaster.
Things change.
And without the direct tutelage of the Valar and Maiar, the Eldar of Middle-earth would have gradually lost much of the ancient knowledge they had acquired in the First Age. Even the Sindar were instructed in some arts by Melian, Ulmo, Orome, and probably others. That knowledge could not have been completely recovered even over thousands of years (because they didn’t re-establish their great civilizations in the Third Age). Tolkien said the Eldar “attempted nothing new” in the Third Age. They simply didn’t have any great innovators left.
Without cultural and technological growth, populations tend to stagnate. That is, they reach a level of equilibrium. In reality some groups grow and expand while other groups diminish. These pockets of growth and decline happen all over the world. I’m sure Tolkien meant to imply this is what happened in Middle-earth.
Conclusion
The “canonical reason” for the apparent lack of growth in Middle-earth’s western cultures (at least in the late Third Age) you’re seeking is Sauron. Tolkien drops hints in the narratives (especially in the Appendices to The Lord of the Rings) about some great will acting against the Eldar and Númenoreans. That great will is Sauron’s. Sauron sent wave after wave of Easterlings against Gondor. He sent the Lord of the Nazgûl to establish the Witch-realm of Angmar, from which his forces wore down the Dunedain of Eriador (Arnor). He destroyed the Northmen of Rhovanion and drove their remnants north to Dale and Éothéod. Thranduil’s Silvan Elves withdrew to northern Mirkwood.
And the awakening of the Balrog underneath Khazad-dûm proved to be a fortuitous circumstance for Sauron. He sent Orcs and Trolls to inhabit Khazad-dûm after the Dwarves were driven out. And maybe he stirred up the dragons against the Dwarves of the Grey Mountains.
But the point is that Tolkien explained in meticulous detail how Sauron’s strategies withered away the great civilizations that had defeated him in the Second Age. He went about the process patiently because he wanted to ensure that he could never again be militarily defeated.
And he wasn’t. His forces were so powerful and widespread by the end of the Third Age that his enemies didn’t even give serious consideration to attempting another war of conquest against Sauron. They instead decided to the destroy the One Ring. That was basically their last and only hope of survival.
See also
How Many Númenorean Colonies Were There In Middle-earth?
When Did Eriador become Deserted?
How Well Populated Was Pre-Plague Eriador?
How Many Independent Hobbit Countries Were There In Middle-earth?
Populations in Middle-earth (SF-Worlds.com)
Where Did Everyone Live? (SF-Worlds.com)
The Sauron Strategies: Footsteps Into Failure (Classic Essay)
The Sauron Strategies: One War To Win Them All, Except … (Classic Essay)
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Have you read our other Tolkien and Middle-earth Questions and Answers articles?
And don’t forget about the plague, which decimated the populations of Gondor and Arnor. Perhaps another of Sauron’s devices, but that’s not certain (to my understanding).
There’s also the matter of the Great Plague of T.A. 1636. It says in Appendix A that it lay Eriador desolate (except for elves, I assume) and the hobbits of the Shire only barely survived. In the south, Gondor abandoned Osgiliath and its watch on Mordor, and it’s implied that the lands to the east suffered similar losses. Which, as you say, was also the doing of Sauron. Sorry if this is in poor taste, but that guy’s kind of the Forrest Gump of the Third Age. No matter where you look, there he is.
In general, I have the impression that the technology of Arda moved backwards over time. All the best stuff is ancient. I suppose the elven smiths of Eregion might be considered an exception, but even then Tolkien describes their art as “antiquarian,” attempting to preserve the parts of the world that were fading away under “the law of the world under the sun” (Letter 131). The only time that technology seemed to increase by leaps and bounds was in Eldamar before the Noldor returned to Middle-earth.
Though if we take the books at face value, the Shire is also a technological wonderland filled with barometers and umbrellas, and books are so common that bookshelves are a thing. All that stuff has been in our world for quite some time, but it doesn’t seem to have been known in Middle-earth outside the Shire, or possibly Bree-land. Which might just show that Tolkien gave a lower priority to technological realism than he did to telling a good story.
I did originally plan to mention the plague but the article was becoming so long I thought it would be sufficient to just link to a couple of other articles. I see now I should have included more discussion.
Thank you all.
I hope I didn’t come across as critical. I thought the article was very thorough, and for some reason it’s easier for me to nitpick than praise. I especially liked your point that technology can advance even if military technology doesn’t. Sometimes I wonder how elvish cuisine changed over time, especially among high elves.
You’re fine. I welcome the feedback and corrections you folks share in these comments. I’m sure blog visitors do, too.
Another thing is that there were no new peoples coming into Middle-earth, whether by immigration or invasion. Returning Noldor, yes, returning Númenoreans, yes, who were just trying to preserve existing knowledge, but no true outsiders to bring new populations or influences to the area. Sauron was no doubt keeping anyone from the south or east showing up to swell the ranks of Arnor, Gondor or any of the lesser realms or to bring different ideas or creations to drive change or introduce spaghetti or silk. Granted, the Blue Wizards got to enjoy some great pasta and wild fashions with unknown folks, but none of it came west. 😉
With Sauron sabotaging the continuity and growth of so many civilizations, you gotta wonder how much the Southern and Eastern civilizations must have been thriving if they, presumably, enjoyed the good-will and trade of Mordor. Then again, their contributions to the War of the Ring could not overwhelm the Gondor and Rohan, nor did they seem to have a technological edge.
I’m guessing Sauron was too much of a control freak to allow the Southerners and Easterners to progress too much. He would carefully dole out gifts to the wainriders and variags, but letting them develop their own tech means they would no longer be completely dependent on his largesse. It would mean they could potentially develop their own vision of Middle Earth.
I’ve always thought that there were two possible reasons, not exclusive, that the Shire was more advanced than Gondor in “consumer products”.
First, the Hobbits traded regularly with the Dwarves of the Blue Mountains. Those cities had been there since the First Age, and Dwarves were noted for their mechanical skills. If they didn’t have clocks and umbrellas by the late 3rd Age it would be very surprising!
In fact, I suspect that, at least in their cities, Dwarves had long had electricity. Batteries are simple, and could have been made, in our world, by the time humans learned to write. Generators/alternators aren’t that complicated. And electric lights, fans, and pumps would have been very useful in an underground city. Hydro- or geothermal generators could have been built in any of them, and wouldn’t have left any external evidence. Just because the Dwarves didn’t sell such stuff doesn’t mean they didn’t have it!
Second, I wonder if there may have been a bias against “mechanical technology” in the Dunedain realms? After all, they had learned a lot from the Elves, who tended to prefer what we call “magic” to machines, and seem to have been little interested in physics and chemistry, preferring biology and mental abilities. Even after losing much of their Eldarin tech, the Dunedain may not have been interested in machines.
I think that Tolkien left empty spaces for the people to explore.
If everything is known and explored, a sentiment of isolation or stagnation would develop. Even in a small area such as Bree, there were three other villages. It is parallel to our research for other life forms in space. If it was proven that we are alone, it maybe would be intolerable to us. As long as we research, there is always something ahead for us.