Q: How Many Noldor Left the Undying Lands in Fëanor’s Rebellion?
ANSWER: To date no one has published a canonical answer to this question and I don’t believe there ever can be. At best we can make some educated guesses. As for why there can never be a canonical answer, that is because Tolkien addressed the various components of such an answer at different times in his life. There was never a coherent thesis regarding the number of Elves involved in the rebellion of the Noldor.
In fact, Tolkien made subtle changes to the story throughout the years. By the end of his life, Galadriel was no longer even a part of that rebellion; but that idea overturned all that Tolkien had written about Galadriel’s life across three decades, violating one of J.R.R. Tolkien’s unwritten rules (explained by Christopher Tolkien). That is, if something had appeared in print, Christopher noted his father’s great reluctance to contradict that. Which is not to say that JRRT didn’t sometimes change things around for he did from edition to edition. And yet, he wrote down many contemplative things in-between published works, things that never really made it into the published canon.
To begin with, we must note that Tolkien wrote about the Elves’ rebellion long before he began to devise numbers for them. There were “hosts” and “multitudes” and “many” and “most” — always things implying number without providing specific numbers. These stories evolved over time in form, substance, and presentation but he never inducted arbitrary counts into them.
Then we must look at the dating methods he included in his stories. The “Years of the Trees” were assigned three different conversion rates for matching their lengths to “Years of the Sun”. The rate apparently chosen by Christopher Tolkien as the most “authentic” appears to have been 9.78:1. And yet, that is only a posthumous selection which is not supported by all the texts (most of which are vague on the matter).
And then we must look at the only example Tolkien provided for specific numbers of Elves. He wrote a story providing “counting lore” that is purported to be a story told to young elves about the first Elves, the Elves who awoke at Cuiviénen. This story is controversial because it challenges a number of details that some readers favor in their idealizations of who the first Elves were supposed to be. For example, some readers insist that Ingwë, Finwë, and Elwë (and Olwë) must have awoken at Cuiviénen but Tolkien changed the narratives which originally said so. And the final story, the last one written, was the “fairy tale” that Christopher Tolkien published in The War of the Jewels with the “Quendi and Eldar” essay. In the “fairy tale” the eldest of the Elves are named Imin, Tata, and Enel (literally, “One”, “Two”, and “Three” in primitive Elvish). These three eldest Elves are not at any point identified or equated with Ingwë, Finwë, and Elwë.
Why does this story matter? Because it is the only source for any numbers that Tolkien devised for Elvish populations. Some people are inclined to cherry pick the information they take from the story. For example, they’ll use the numbers but they’ll argue that Imin, Tata, and Enel are simply figurative names or nicknames for Ingwë, Finwë, and Elwë. Of course, in the story Enel does not have a brother so to identify Enel with Elwë contradicts all that we know about Elwë’s family. Furthermore, Cirdan is not mentioned. So the question comes down to whether you should consider the story to be a credible representation of what Tolkien imagined for the awakening of the Elves. The fact he presents this form of the legend as a story meant for (Elvish) children does not really indicate there should be no “truth” in it.
We do tell fanciful stories to our children about the past. For example, in America we share a story about how George Washington cut down a cherry tree and — when confronted by his father — confessed immediately rather than lie about what he did. All scholars agree this event probably never happened. But we also tell simplified stories about the past, too, leaving out many details and making the stories amusing or entertaining for children. So the fact that a story is meant for children doesn’t mean its details are untrue.
Given these limitations on the source material, one can begin computing numbers. But you have to decide how you want to model the generations. For example, in one comment Tolkien noted that early Noldorin families averaged about four children per couple. Elsewhere he noted that an Elvish child required about 50 years to reach maturity. And he also said at one point that Elves tended to raise each child before having another (although twins were occasionally born). Hence, it would be a rare Elvish household that had many children in it at one time. Assuming a rather mechanical procession of births, a typical Elvish couple might wed around ages 50-100 and have four children over the course of the next 150-200 years. Using this model to predict population growth forces one to account for immense staggering of ages and generations.
In “Elves by the Numbers” I estimated that perhaps as many as 18,314 Elves might have set out on the Great Journey — but this is a number that has no source in Tolkien’s own writings. Based on my own assumptions I estimated there may have been 3560 Noldor who set out on the Great Journey. Extending this model I estimated that perhaps there could have been 130,000 Noldor living at the time of the rebellion. Of those, 13,000 would have chosen to NOT rebel. That leaves about 117,000 Noldor.
From there I arbitrarily reduced the number to “under 100,000” arriving in Middle-earth (due to losses in battle, storms at sea, and some Noldor turning back). And yet, to bring 90-100,000 Noldor to Middle-earth would imply that by the time the Noldor were in their ascendancy they must have numbered around 1,000,000. Some people just find that number to be too large. I have no idea of why but for some readers it just doesn’t feel right.
Fair enough. I speak with no authority on the matter but I hope that at least I have given you some insight into what it might take to calculate populations of Elves. J.R.R. Tolkien himself may have been daunted by the idea; or perhaps he simply never concluded that it was important enough to extend all the way through to the logical conclusion.
See also:
- How Many Elves Lived in Rivendell?
- Elves by the Numbers
- How Many Rangers of the North Were There?
- How Many Men Entered Beleriand?
- How Many Riders of Rohan Were There?
- How Many Elves Lived in Middle-earth?
- How Many Soldiers Fought in the Battle of Five Armies?
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i think the thing the confuses me the most concerning the number of Noldor who rebeled is the “Kinslaying at Aqualonde.” How many ships did the Noldor really need? How many bodies can one fit in a Swan boat? More importantly, why did the Teleri have need of that many ships to begin with? Were they planning some kind of Exodus themselves but they kept it from everyone?