In the First Age, Morgoth attempted to overwhelm his Eldarin foes by throwing everything possible at them. Usually, his armies met with mixed success. Even the Nirnaeth Arnoediad proved to be so costly a victory that Morgoth could not fully capitalize on the defeat of the Elven armies and their allies. He seized Hithlum and the March of Maedhros, restored his troops to Dorthonion, and took full control over the upper Vale of Sirion. But the Falas, Nargothrond, Doriath (and Brethil, which was technically a part of Doriath), and Gondolin each had to be dealt with separately.
In the Second Age, Sauron attempted to duplicate Morgoth’s dubious successes with sudden onsloughts, hoping to achieve crushing military victories. Yet, he lacked Morgoth’s advantages. Whereas most of Middle-earth was under Morgoth’s control, Sauron had to continually engage in empire building. And whereas Morgoth’s chief fortress of Angband was closely ringed about by his enemies, Sauron positioned himself in Mordor with the intention of deploying agents and forces to work against both the Eldar in the north and the Numenoreans in the south.
Numenorean settlements had not advanced very far north by the time Sauron forged the One Ring around the year 1600. The great fortresses of Pelargir, on the lower Anduin, and Umbar would not be established for more than 600 years. Numenorean power was at best a promise of future conflict. But when Gil-galad called upon Numenor to help prepare Eriador for the coming war, the Numenoreans invested nearly 100 years in fortifying positions along the Gwathlo and Lhun rivers. By the time Sauron began to move his forces north, his enemies had multiple lines of defense.
Which is not to say that Sauron should have been repulsed. The histories make it clear that Sauron seized Tharbad and pushed his way into Eregion with relative ease. Ost-en-Edhil held out for a while, possibly as long as a year. Elrond’s attempt to reinforce Eregion failed and he had to retreat north. Sauron sent an army to keep Elrond out of the way. And, apparently, at the same time he was destroying Eregion, Sauron sent an army east of the Misty Mountains to root out the Elven and Edainic peoples there, the latter of whom had long been allied with the Longbeard Dwarves.
So, Sauron not only gave his enemies a long time to prepare for the war, he spread his forces thinly when he launched the war. Gil-galad was able to consolidate most of his surviving forces at the Lhun after being pushed back from the Baranduin river. Sauron overran Eriador, but Tolkien notes that Sauron killed or drove off the Men and Elves living throughout the region. Those who were driven off fell back to Elrond’s encampment in Imladris or Gil-galad’s kingdom. The two regions were thus strengthened by Sauron’s advancing campaign.
Ultimately, it required massive intervention from Numenor to defeat Sauron, but the lesson he learned from the war was that Numenor was going to be more trouble than Lindon. Tolkien tells us that war never ceased between the Elves and Sauron after that time, yet Sauron altered his strategic goals. He began conquering more territory in the east. And, gradually, as Sauron extended his power southward he came into conflict with the Numenorean colonies along the southern coasts of Middle-earth. Numenor had been colonizing Middle-earth since around the year 1200, but about the year 1800 the Numenoreans began establishing fortresses, levying tribute from local peoples, and conquering occupied lands. Numenor became a rival power with which Sauron had to contend. In fact, it proved impossible for Sauron to defeat Numenor in the field, and he finally overcame the Numenoreans through a subtrefuge which brought about Numenor’s destruction and the death of most of its people.
And yet, despite the fall of Numenor, Sauron had not rid himself of the Numenorean threat. Elendil and the exiled Faithful Dunedain established the kingdoms of Arnor and Gondor in northern Middle-earth. Though but a remnant of the once mighty nation which had humbled Sauron militarily, the Faithful Dunedain were too powerful to be overwhelmed quickly. Sauron learned this when he took Minas Ithil but was driven back from Osgiliath. One can almost hear him thinking, “Uh, oh. This didn’t go as planned.” Had he waited another 100 years, both Arnor and Gondor would have become more powerful, but Sauron might have re-established full control over his network of allies and subject states. He would have had far greater resources to call upon than he possessed when he attacked Gondor in 3429.
Waiting too long, acting too soon — these were the mistakes Sauron committed in the Second Age. He permitted his enemies to grow strong while he himself dispersed his forces and waged war on many fronts. After his defeat, Sauron had 1,000 years to reflect upon his failures and weaknesses. When he became strong enough to re-embody himself, he understood that in order to seize control over Middle-earth, he needed to work slowly, carefully. He needed to build up his power while wearing down his enemies.
The first step was to select a safe haven. Mordor was occupied by Gondor, which in the 11th century of the Third Age had nearly reached the height of its power. There was no hope of wresting control of Mordor away from the Dunedain at this point in time. And yet, Sauron needed to be close to his enemies. Greenwood the Great therefore offered an attractive position. The dense woodlands would offer relative secrecy and some defense, and the commanding height of Amon Lanc, long abandoned by the Elves, would be easy to fortify.
Becoming the Necromancer of Dol Guldur (the new name the Elves gave to Amon Lanc), Sauron built up a cadre of evil servants who spread through the forest. Greenwood the Great became so terrifying that Men renamed it Mirkwood. And as Orcs, Trolls, Wargs, Spiders, and other creatures gathered around Dol Guldur, Sauron renewed contact with some of the eastern peoples who had once served him. Inducing some of the Easterlings to migrate to southern Mirkwood, Sauron set into motion a wave of mirgations which rolled into Eriador. The Hobbits, having dwelt in the Vales of Anduin for many centuries, grew fearful as the influx of Easterlings threatened their neighbors, and began departing for safer lands in the west.
Around the year 1300, Sauron sent the Lord of the Nazgul north to establish the realm of Angmar. Angmar served two purposes. First, it was a remote base of operations which worked against Arnor’s people in close proximity. Sauron did not have to worry about establishing and protecting long supply lines. Secondly, Angmar would seem like just another enemy land to Elves and Dunedain. An implacable single enemy state would draw too much attention. But if hostile realms rose up in several places, no one could be sure of exactly what was happening. Had Sauron returned, or were some of his former servants simply becoming more ambitious and powerful? Inspiring doubt and delay in his enemies purchased time for Sauron to grow stronger.
But though Angmar could take advantage of the divisions which had arisen in Arnor (which the Dunedain had divided into three smaller realms in 863), Dol Guldur itself became isolated from the east. About the time Sauron must have been contemplating what he could do to the northern kingdoms, Minalcar settled Gondor’s differences with the Northmen and Easterlings by attacking the lands near southern Mirkwood, lands to which Gondor had long laid claim, but which had become home to many Easterlings and some treacherous Northmen. Minalcar destroyed or drove the Easterlings well beyond the Sea of Rhun, and he allied himself with the kingdom of Rhovanion, east of Mirkwood, then ruled by Vidugavia.
Minalcar’s failure to attack Dol Guldur is curious. Quite possibly, Sauron was using the Easterlings as a screen, and the Necromancer of Dol Guldur may have struck Minalcar as being little or no threat to Gondor. Still, Sauron had to wait for the Easterlings to recover their numbers. But it may also be that he felt a new kind of Easterling culture needed to be developed. In later centuries, Tolkien tells us, there would be wars among the Easterlings. Sauron’s control over the eastern peoples may not have been complete, or else he felt that the best warriors would be those who survived dreadful feuds and wars.
But Gondor was also very powerful. Even when the Kin-strife broke out, and Eldacar eventually drove his enemies south, Sauron was in no position to take advantage of the conflict. He was too far away from Umbar, where the defeated rebels sought refuge, to make contact with the dissidents. Though it was a safe haven, Dol Guldur was very confining. The Great Plague of 1636, which Sauron unleashed in the east and sent westward, opened up new opportunities for him. Gondor lost so many people it could no longer sustain the garrisons in Mordor. When the Dunedain left, Orcs other creatures moved in. But rather than return there himself, Sauron merely used Mordor as a corridor for further expansion. He probably began sending agents south at this time to make overtures to the Haradrim.
200 years after the Great Plague, the Wainriders attacked the Northmen and Gondor. The western peoples were defeated and Sauron achieved complete control over the lands between Mirkwood and Mordor. The Lord of the Nazgul soon afterward brought about the final overthrow of Arthedain, the last of the northern Dunadan realms. But though Lindon and Imladris remained in the north, and had both played significant roles in the defeat of Angmar, Sauron turned his attention to Gondor, whose intervention was responsible for the destruction of Angmar. The northern lands had not been entirely ruined, but they became less of a threat.
Also, when the Dwarves of Khazad-dum released the Balrog in 1980, they unwittingly shifted the balance of power in the north. Although Khazad-dum had not (apparently) taken an active role in the wars with Angmar, it had stood with the Last Alliance of Elves and Men against Sauron, and might yet again oppose Sauron. The Balrog’s destruction of the Dwarven civilization, and the subsequent flight of many Elves from Lothlorien, virtually ensured that Sauron would have almost no enemies of significant power in the north. Tolkien suggests that it was because of the Necromancer’s presence in southern Mirkwood that Galadriel decided to intervene in Lothlorien. Had she and Celeborn not restored order to the Elven realm, there would have been no one left to oppose Dol Guldur except for a few woodmen and the still small people called the Eotheod, who were themselves only a remnant of Vidugavia’s once great Northman kingdom of Rhovanion. Thranduil’s realm in northern Mirkwood remained strong, but he had not participated in a major war since the end of the Second Age.
The 20th century of the Third Age proved to be a tumultuous period for both Sauron and his allies. The loss of Arthedain and Khazad-dum must have alarmed the Eldar and the Istari. Gondor’s losses to the Easterlings and the final retreat of the Eotheod to the Vales of Anduin ensured that the West no longer possessed the manpower to stem the flow of peoples and resources to southern Mirkwood and Mordor. And the emergence of the Nazgul in 2002, when they laid siege to Minas Ithil, which fell after only two years, was a sign that the evil defeated in the north had only suffered a minor setback.
Nonetheless, Dol Guldur, though evil by reputation, seems to have displayed little ambition through this period. The kings of Arnor and Gondor had concluded in the mid-20th century that a single will was orchestrating their declines for an undisclosed purpose. By the mid-21st century, the Wise (the Istari and the lords of the Eldar) must have concluded that the power in Dol Guldur was the most likely candidate for the role of Master Enemy. But just who was the Necromancer? The Wise suspected it may have been a Nazgul. After all, the Lord of the Nazgul had been the Witch-king of Angmar. The Nazgul had just taken Minas Ithil. Nazgul were obviously active in Middle-earth. But some, probably including Galadriel and Gandalf, feared the Necromancer was Sauron himself. Hence, in 2063 Gandalf investigated Dol Guldur and Sauron retreated eastward.
Over the next 400 years, which the Wise referred to as the Watchful Peace, Sauron prepared new forces. The Balchoth, related to the Wainriders, rose to prominence in the east. The Uruks were bred in Mordor. Umbar, destroyed by Gondor in the 19th century, was reinvested by forces undoubtedly loyal to Sauron, and he finally began to challenge Numenorean control over the seas. Sauron’s influence among the Haradrim increased.
When he deemed the time right, in 2460 Sauron returned to Dol Guldur with new forces, and Minas Ithil unleashed the Uruks upon Ithilien. Sauron sent Orcs and Trolls to colonize the Misty Mountains. And the Corsairs of Umbar began to attack Gondor. The return to Dol Guldur, however, implies that Sauron still feared the union of his enemies. The Longbeard Dwarves were growing strong again. The Eotheod were becoming more numerous, and there were other Edainic peoples in the Vales of Anduin who might ally themselves with Gondor. Lothlorien remained as a bulwark of Elven power, and Thranduil controlled northern Mirkwood. Sauron must have wanted to keep his northern enemies off balance while the Nazgul, Balchoth, and Corsairs whittled away at Gondor’s resources.
But Sauron was also drawn back to Dol Guldur by another factor: the One Ring. He long believed it had been destroyed. Yet in time he came to realize that this could not be so. He had invested the greater part of his strength in the Ring. If it had been destroyed, then he should have been rendered much too weak to become powerful again. His strength continued to return, though, and century by century he was able to exert his will over more people, more creatures. At some point, the Ring’s survival had to become an obvious fact to Sauron. He hadn’t merely survived his downfall. He was recovering from it.
It therefore became imperative that Sauron find the Ring before his enemies found it and used it against him. He never conceived of anyone trying to destroy the Ring, but there remained in Middle-earth powerful Eldar who might, if they came into possession of the Ring, try to use it to build up their power again: Cirdan, Elrond, Galadriel, Celeborn. They were all relatives of the ancient Eldarin kings, and were accounted mighty in lore and power. And what did Sauron know or suspect of the Istari? They were obviously immortal. They had been around for more than 1,000 years.
When Sauron eventually learned about Isildur’s end, he was well positioned in Dol Guldur to seize control over the region of the Gladden Fields so that his servants could search for the Ring. But Sauron would not learn for many centuries yet that the Ring lay on the far side of the river, or that it was found before he even began looking for it by a Stoor named Deagol, whose cousin Smeagol murdered him and took the Ring.
The Balchoth’s attack against northern Gondor in 2510 thus may have had two purposes: first, to wear down Gondor; second, to clear the way for Sauron’s search for the Ring. Gondor’s northern border lay too close to Dol Guldur for much secrecy. Sauron’s objectives suffered a reversal, however, when Eorl led an army of Eotheod out of the north to Gondor’s aid. The Battle of the Field of Celebrant was not a crushing defeat for the Balchoth. They remained an effective fighting force for Sauron, but control over the Undeeps passed from Gondor to the Eotheod, rather than to Sauron. Gondor and Lothlorien thus continued to pose a great threat to Sauron’s plans.
Yet, when Cirion ceded Calenardhon to Eorl and his people, Sauron had to alter his strategy once more. Cirion consolidated his forces in Anorien and Ithilien, and Calenardhon came under the control of a strong northern people over whom Sauron had no hope of gaining control. The Rohirrim, as Eorl’s people came to be known, could not simply be ignored. And an opportunity to deal with them arose in the 28th century. Helm, King of Rohan (as Calenardhon was now called), consolidated his power over the western lands by killing the upstart lord Freca and outlawing his family. Freca’s son Wulf allied himself with the Dunlendings, whose ancestors had served Sauron in the Second Age.
In 2758, Wulf launched an attack against Rohan from Dunland. At the same time, Corsairs from Umbar or other parts of the Harad attacked Rohan from the west, and Balchoth or other Easterlings attacked Rohan from the east. Gondor itself was attacked and thus prevented from sending aid to Rohan. The Rohirrim were defeated in open battle and driven into the mountains. Wulf took possession of most of the land. Sauron undoubtedly planned the assault, and the extended period of cold, called the Long Winter, ensured that the people of Rohan (and Eriador) suffered terribly. But if it was Sauron’s goal to destroy the Rohirrim in this conflict, he failed. Although Helm himself perished during the Long Winter, his nephew Frealaf defeated Wulf and his allies the next spring with help from Gondor, which repulsed the attacks in the south. But the conflict produced one other setback, which Sauron most likely did not see coming.
In 2590, the Longbeard Dwarves re-established the Kingdom under the Mountain in Erebor, which lay to the east of northern Mirkwood. While Erebor posed no threat to Dol Guldur, it allied itself with the Northman Kingdom of Dale. The two realms increased in wealth, fame, and power. In 2770 the dragon Smaug came out of the distant north and destroyed both Erebor and Dale. The surviving Dwarves went into exile and the royal family ended up in Dunland. In 2990, Thror, who had been King under the Mountain, decided to return east. He was murdered by Azog, a chieftain of the Orcs in Khazad-dum, who decapitated Thror and mutilated the Dwarf-king’s head.
Thror’s son Thrain assembled an alliance of all the Dwarven peoples for a seven-year war against the Orcs of the Misty Mountains. Although the Dwarves suffered grievous losses, they nearly wiped out the Orcs. Sauron’s control over the Misty Mountains was effectively destroyed in that war. Coupled with his failure to destroy or seize control over Rohan, losing the Misty Mountains diminished Sauron’s chances of destroying Lothlorien or of finding the One Ring.
Not to be thwarted for long, Sauron may at this time have begun retrieving the other Rings of Power he had given out in the Second Age. The Dwarves had the Seven and the Nazgul had the Nine. Commanding the Nazgul to surrender their Rings would be no problem. But Sauron had to hunt down the Dwarf-kings one by one and take their Rings from them. And of those kings, only three still possessed their Rings. Four of the Rings had apparently been destroyed by dragons. Thrain was the last Ring-keeper to fall into Sauron’s hands. Although Tolkien offers no explanation for why Sauron took back the Rings of Power, it may be that he used them to enhance his own strength. Or perhaps he intended, at some point, to distribute them again to potential new slaves. Gloin reported to the Council of Elrond in 3018 that Sauron had offered three Rings to King Dain II, although we cannot say that Sauron would actually have restored the Rings to the Dwarves.
At the urging of the White Council, which Galadriel had convened among the Istari and lords of the Eldar after the Watchful Peace ended, Gandalf returned to Dol Guldur in 2851. There he finally confirmed that the Necromancer was indeed Sauron returned, and Gandalf discovered that Sauron was gathering the Rings of Power once again, as well as seeking for the One. Such news proved alarming to Saruman, who had settled in the former Gondorian fortress of Isengard after the Long Winter. Saruman had by this time come to believe that the One Ring could indeed be found, and he wanted it for himself. He began recruiting Dunlendings and Orcs to serve him, and sent spies to search for the Ring near the Gladden Fields.
Although Saruman presented little immediate threat to Sauron, the search for the Ring took on new urgency. Whereas Arnor had been completely destroyed (or so Sauron believed — he did not realize that descendants of Isildur had survived in the north), Gondor was proving to be much more resilient and versatile, thanks to the alliance with the Rohirrim. The rise of a rival power in Isengard could complicate matters, but if Sauron could find the One Ring he would quickly be able to achieve mastery over many peoples.
By 2941, Sauron was probably convinced the One Ring was no longer in the region of the Gladden Fields. The White Council moved against him and he retreated from Dol Guldur. Mirkwood is said to have become a cleaner, more wholesome place for a time. Such a transition implies that Sauron did not simply retreat from Dol Guldur. It suggests that there was a wholesale migration eastward of Orcs, Men, and whatever other creatures were directly under his control. While some people argue that the White Council’s action may have consisted of some sort of magical attack, it is more likely that Lothlorien sent an army into Mirkwood. The Istari and the Lords of the Eldar may have challenged the Necromancer’s sorcerous power directly, but Sauron pulled back and thereby preserved a great part of his forces.
The retreat suggests that Sauron was no longer willing to risk his primary armies in open combat, or to allow them to act by proxy. On the other hand, in the north, Bolg (son of Azog) launched a campaign against the small company of Dwarves, led by Thorin Thrain’s son, who returned to Erebor. After the death of Smaug, Elves, Men, Dwarves, and Orcs all converged on the mountain to seize the treasure which Smaug had guarded there for 170 years. Was Bolg acting on Sauron’s orders, or had Sauron lost control over the Orcs of the Misty Mountains? If Sauron approved of or permitted Bolg to launch the attack, then he allowed considerable resources to be committed to an action which might have secured a base in the north Sauron could use against Thranduil. But it also left Sauron without close support from the Misty Mountains. Had Bolg gained control over Erebor, Sauron would have been in a position to crush Thranduil and bring reinforcements against Lothlorien without hindrance. But when Bolg drew off the Orc armies, Lothlorien had a window of opportunity in which to take action.
If Bolg was therefore to be Sauron’s proxy in the north, Sauron would himself be able to return to Mordor with all the forces of Dol Guldur. Instead of spreading his resources across three major bases (Mordor, Dol Guldur, and Erebor), Sauron could have consolidated his strength in two very defensible regions, both of which could be easily reinforced and resupplied from the east. Hence, because he had not risked everything, Bolg’s defeat at Erebor only delayed Sauron’s plans. Tolkien says that three-quarters of the Orcs of the north perished in the Battle of Five Armies. It would require several decades for them to recover their numbers. In the meantime, as the Northmen rebuilt the Kingdom of Dale and the Longbeard Dwarves rebuilt the Kingdom of Erebor, Sauron returned to Mordor.
Sauron declared himself openly in 2951. He now felt confident enough, despite his failure to recover the One Ring, to withstand any assault the West might launch against him. The psychological effect of “I have returned” upon the Elves cannot be underestimated. Many of the Eldar simply lost hope. Perhaps most of them believed that Sauron had recovered the One Ring, or that he was on the verge of recovering it. By the year 3000 Dwarves began moving west, and they brought out of the east reports of the movements of peoples, of predatory wars, and of Sauron’s increasing power. Many of the remaining Eldar joined a massive wave of migration over Sea, leaving Middle-earth forever. The Silvan Elves remained steadfast, but Lindon and Imladris could no longer raise armies.
As the Orcs of the Misty Mountains recovered their numbers, new enemies threatened the eastern borders of Dale. Mordor forged new alliances with Easterlings and Haradrim, and Saruman fell under Sauron’s influence when the wizard used the Palantir he had found in Isengard to spy on Mordor. Although Saruman’s allegiance to the West had already vanished, he had until this time opposed Sauron. It therefore served Saruman’s purpose to help the White Council drive Sauron from Dol Guldur in 2941. He wanted to search for the One Ring freely. By the time of the War of the Ring, Saruman had found Isildur’s remains, but not the Ring (which, of course, had been taken to the Shire).
Gondor had continued to decline under the repeated attacks from Mordor and Harad, but Gondor’s military strength was no longer vital to Sauron’s strategy. The Ring itself became Sauron’s chief priority. He finally learned the fate of the One Ring from Smeagol, and in 3018 he sent the Nazgul to the Shire to seize the Ring and bring it back to him. Although he was preparing for war no one believed he could lose, Sauron needed to ensure his enemies would not use the Ring against him before he launched that war. His captains might shift allegiances if someone powerful enough to wield the Ring rose up and took possession of it.
The vast array of kingdoms and tribes Sauron had assembled assured him of ultimate victory in any war where no one used the Ring. The recovery of the Ring would have assured him of undisputed control over Middle-earth. The Eldar who remained were no longer powerful enough to challenge him. The Dunedain had dwindled and were too few in number to raise the powerful armies they had commanded at the height of their power. And the Northmen, though strong in places like Dale, the upper Vales of Anduin, and Rohan, were divided into many realms and incapable of forming an alliance powerful enough to challenge him.
In 3018, Sauron was poised to crush Dale and Erebor, roll through northern Mirkwood, and sweep the Vales of Anduin clear of Men, Elves, and Dwarves. Even Lothlorien probably would not have survived for long. Gondor, on the other hand, possessed sufficient strength, especially if reinforced by Rohan, to withstand at least one massive assault. Saruman’s assigned role was to prevent or delay Rohan’s reinforcing Gondor. The Orcs of the Misty Mountains could attack the Beornings, the Woodmen, and Lothlorien, and undoubtedly Imladris and Eriador. Dol Guldur, now reinvested, would keep Thranduil at bay. There was no hope of the northern peoples forming a last-minute alliance and coming to Gondor’s aid. All the pieces were in place. Victory was assured. It was a good time to be a Dark Lord.
Gandalf’s analysis of Sauron’s intentions and priorities (as revealed at the Council of Elrond in 3018 and in the last debate of the Captains of the West in 3019) offers insight into Sauron’s changing strategies in the Third Age. When he awoke and assumed a physical shape again, Sauron believed he had been wounded deeply through the destruction of the One Ring. Determined to avenge himself upon his enemies, and perhaps to regain control over Middle-earth, he set about the task of dividing and weakening his foes. His lieutenant brought about the destruction of Arnor. The Balrog (either at Sauron’s direction or through fortuitous circumstance) destroyed Khazad-dum and almost eliminated Lothlorien. The Easterlings, Corsairs, and Haradrim wore down Gondor, reducing it from a very powerful empire to a shriveled state, still proud but fearful and imbued with a sense of dread and doom. And most of the remaining Eldar fled Middle-earth when they saw the final conflict was about to begin.
Despite occasional setbacks, by 3019 Sauron was confident of his ability to achieve complete victory over his foes. He had learned that the One Ring still existed, and he knew who possessed it. He feared that someone would take the Ring and use it against him. The greatest peril, in Sauron’s view, lay in the possibility that division and strife might arise within his armies. The forces he had assembled could be used against him. Aragorn and Gandalf therefore concluded that the best chance for Frodo’s quest to destroy the Ring depended upon Sauron’s fear. They let him believe that a new Ringlord, presumably Aragorn, was emerging. Keenly aware of what delay had cost him in the Second Age (and perhaps feeling he would not be acting too soon), Sauron launched a massive attack against Gondor in the hope of capturing the Ring. And when that assault failed, he unleashed everything he had left in a savage assault he believed would quickly bring the Ring to him.
How devastating must the realization have been to Sauron, when Frodo claimed the Ring from within the chamber of the Sammath Naur, that he, the master manipulator, had been played for a fool. All his careful planning and maneuvering for two thousand years had been for nothing. Massive force, overwhelming power, and the most subtle strategies were all undermined by Sauron’s complete misinterpretation of the facts he had gathered. He believed his enemies would seek to become like him. Had he understood that they would simply wish to be rid of him and all Dark Lords forever, he might have become more defensive. In such a world, Sauron would have been stalemated for a time. He would still have to fear that someone might seize the Ring and use it against him. But he would also have to fear that someone might succeed in destroying it. He would have had to devise a new strategy. It should not be doubted that he would have done so, and that the Council of Elrond rightly concluded that they had one and only one opportunity to defeat Sauron.
This article was originally published on October 20, 2001.
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